Daily FX Profit Signal December 30th, 2009

 

Summary: Hi Everyone. US consumer confidence came in just as expected, 52.9 vs the 53 expected. There was some movement afterwards and I think we may see a dollar bottom for the time being. Tomorrow’s Chicago PMI will be released, followed by Unemployment Claims on Thursday. We’re expecting very little movement, most of it during the hour of the news release.  Until tomorrow. No new trades but we’ll discuss some possible opportunities in the video.
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Free Daily Forex Video December 30, 2009

Here is your free trading video for 30th December 2009:

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Daily FX Profit Signal December 29th 2009

Hi Everyone, no video today, just a quick update. The market was pretty quiet today, as expected. We’re waiting for US Consumer confidence to be released later today. A reading of 53 is expected, which would be an increase from the 49.5 figure last month. Consumers make up the majority of overall economic activity so a better than expected number may result in further dollar strength in the short term. More data out on Wednesday. If we see any major swings, we’ll be sure to update you via video with new daily levels.   

Free Daily Forex Video December 29, 2009

Hi Everyone, no video today, just a quick update. The market was pretty quiet today, as expected. The USD/CAD is now near the range low of 1.0400; we’re keeping a close watch on this pair as we may have a good opportunity for a trade. We’re also waiting for US Consumer confidence to be released later today. A reading of 53 is expected, which would be an increase from the 49.5 figure last month. Consumers make up the majority of overall economic activity so a better than expected number may result in further dollar strength in the short term. More data out on Wednesday. If we see any major swings, we’ll be sure to update you via video with new daily levels.

Economic Calendar 28 December - 01 January

DATE	TIME	CRNCY	EVENT	ACTUAL	FORECAST	PREVIOUS
Tue	14:00	EUR	EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC P)	0.80%	0.70%	0.40%
29-Dec
	14:00	EUR	EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (DEC P)	0.80%	0.70%	0.30%
	15:00	USD	USD Consumer Confidence (DEC)	52.9	53	50.6 (R+)

 

Interest Rate Decisions

Interest rates decisions news flashes provide guidelines for the overnight lending rate which are bound to have an effect on businesses and consumers alike. An upward surge in the cost of living - inflation and a runaway economy is slowed by hiking the interest rates. Lowering interest rates rejuvenates an economy from the doldrums by enabling consumers to get easy credit thus increasing consumption. Currencies strengthen when interest rates move north and weaken when the rates move southwards.

 Change in Employment

Change in employment index compares the employment to the unemployment rates in a certain economy. The index which is calculated by economist is used to predict future spending and consumption pertains which are likely to occur due to change of one of the parameters. An economy can either grow or contract depending on which of the two parameters changes.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

CPI is one of the most reliable parameters used to gauge the extent of inflation on the economy. Every household spends money on some basic commodities and utilities, these items are collectively referred to as “the consumer basket”. By monitoring the changes in price of the consumer basket, economists are able to predict the interest trends. This is largely due to the fact that central bank will more often than not act to tame inflation by raising interest rates and vice versa. The adjustments of interest rates to keep consumer basket within the majorities reach will affect the underlying currency either strengthening or weakening it.

Retail Sales

Retails sales are good pointers of the state of the economy. When the economy is strong and growing, retails sales escalate and consumer are more willing to spend money on luxury goods. Conversely, a shrinking economy is characterized by a reduction in retail sales and cautious spending by consumers.

Trade Balance

This is simply the difference between total exports and total exports between two or more trading nations. Multinational trade involves the export and import of goods and services between nations. When one country exports more than it imports the net effect is a trade surplus. The reverse of this is known as trade deficit. Great emphasis is placed on Trade Balance Report as it shows the movement of goods and services between nations. Countries with trade surplus usually have stronger economies as there have more money in than what there are spending.

Gross Domestic Product – GDP

GDP is derived at by measuring the consumers’ ability to consume / afford goods and services produced within their economy. A strong GDP is a sign of a robust economy which should be checked for inflation - rising interest rates - while a weak GDP could be interpreted to indicate a recession meaning interest rates are likely to head south.

ISM Manufacturing Survey

This survey gauges the mood and sentiments of companies’ top brass, decision and policy makers towards inflation. The centerpiece of this survey is their take on business outlook - new business, production capacities, backlogs, inventory levels and manpower issues. A 50 points scale is used to interpret the findings with value 50 indicating expansion, while values below 50 are a sign of recession

 

Daily FX Profit Signal December 28th 2009

Another short week leading into the New Year weekend! We’re not expecting to see major moves but we will still keep one eye on the market as there are some key economic data that will be released. We want to see how the market reacts to this data and will try to figure out what direction the market wants to go.

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Free Daily Forex Video December 28, 2009

Free Daily Forex Video December 28, 2009

Here is your free trading video for 28th December 2009:

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Daily FX Profit Signal December 23rd, 2009

Positive economic news out of the US helped the dollar maintain its course to stronger levels. The EUR/USD pair came within 15 pips of touching the 1.4200 level, a very important level of support at this time. Annualized existing home sales rose to a much more than expected increased to 6.54 million for the month of November. The increase may be attributed to the tax credit programs instituted by the government for repeat and first time home buyers. We’ll see how new US home sales pair up later today. A lot of interesting price action right before the holidays.
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Free Daily Forex Video December 23, 2009

Here is your free trading video for 23rd December 2009:

 

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Free Daily Forex Video December 22, 2009

Hi everyone. A very quiet day yesterday aside from the Yen losing important ground and the Canadian dollar attempting to reverse direction and get back into the wedge we’ve been following. We hope there isn’t too much noise in the market during this week, but with important economic data being released, we could still see some swings, given the low volume. Be careful trading during such conditions, high volatility/low volume creates extreme volatility levels!

No video today since I’m traveling to see family for the holidays, so we’ll try to post a video tomorrow. At the very least, we’ll update you via email and site. Thank you,

KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS:

LEVEL	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDCHF	USDJPY
Resistance Level 5	$1.5000	$1.6700
Resistance Level 4	$1.4850	$1.6450	$1.0700	¥93.200
Resistance Level 3	$1.4700	$1.6350	$1.0650	¥92.300
Resistance Level 2	$1.4580	$1.6250	$1.0550	¥92.000
Resistance Level 1	$1.4500	$1.6200	$1.0500	¥91.500
Current Price	$1.4274	$1.6040	$1.0450	¥91.050
Support Level 1	$1.4250	$1.6000	$1.0350	¥90.800
Support Level 2	$1.4200	$1.6000	$1.0280	¥88.200
Support Level 3	$1.4050	$1.5800	$1.0200	¥87.200
Support Level 4	$1.4000		$1.0130	¥86.200
Support Level 5			$1.0100	¥85.000

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