Free Daily Forex Video March 26, 2010

 

The dollar continued with the recent rally even in the wake of better than expected UK Retail Sales. We are looking for a continuation into the next 24 hours, setting up a nice finish to this week’s rally. We still see risk ahead of the weekend as we’re sure to hear more about Greece and the IMF. We are looking for good entry levels to long the buck.  With the euro setting a lower daily low, we are now looking at 1.3400 as the main level of resistance, followed by 1.3450. Plenty of important people speaking throughout the day and we will have some data out of the US to help with the price action.

Daily FX Profit Signal March 24th, 2010

We seem to be stuck in some mud. We continue to talk about the uncertainty of the market, the lack of direction, and the lack of correlation between the majors. The commodity pairs are very stubborn and don’t seem to turn over with the rest of the majors when the dollar strengthens. The EUR/USD will once again be testing 1.3430, currently trading at 1.3475; will a break lower make a larget posting to 1.33 and change or will we see another bounce into the recent range? We are anticipating the buck to continue strengthening but the problem with this is timing. How many times will we bounce before we see a definitive trend? We’ll see what the next 24 hours
bring us.
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Free Daily Forex Video March 24, 2010

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Daily FX Profit Signal March 23rd, 2010

Following another drop below 1.3500 for the EUR/USD, the market found a bottom at 1.3460 before bouncing back 100 pips to close the day at 1.3660. We’ve been expecting a retracement but wanted to see 1.3500 hold. Still not a good picture of what’s happening.  We are still not certain about Greece and their outcome, as well as how the US healthcare bill will affect the dollar. Still very little correlation between some of the majors so we are going to look at the market with caution.
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Free Daily Forex Video March 23, 2010

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Economic Calendar 22 March - 26 March

DATE	TIME	CRNCY	EVENT	ACTUAL	FORECAST	PREVIOUS
Tue	9:30	GBP	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)		0.50%	-0.20%
23-Mar
	9:30	GBP	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)		3.10%	3.50%
	9:30	GBP	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)		3.10%	3.10%
Wed	12:30	USD	USD Durable Goods Orders (FEB)		0.90%	3.00%
24-Mar
	21:45	NZD	NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)		0.80%	0.20%
	21:45	NZD	NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)		0.40%	-1.30%
Thu	23:30	JPY	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)		-1.10%	-1.30%
25-Mar
Fri	12:30	USD	USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q T)		5.90%	5.90%
26-Mar

Interest Rate Decisions

Interest rates decisions news flashes provide guidelines for the overnight lending rate which are bound to have an effect on businesses and consumers alike. An upward surge in the cost of living - inflation and a runaway economy is slowed by hiking the interest rates. Lowering interest rates rejuvenates an economy from the doldrums by enabling consumers to get easy credit thus increasing consumption. Currencies strengthen when interest rates move north and weaken when the rates move southwards.

 

 Change in Employment

Change in employment index compares the employment to the unemployment rates in a certain economy. The index which is calculated by economist is used to predict future spending and consumption pertains which are likely to occur due to change of one of the parameters. An economy can either grow or contract depending on which of the two parameters changes.

 

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

CPI is one of the most reliable parameters used to gauge the extent of inflation on the economy. Every household spends money on some basic commodities and utilities, these items are collectively referred to as “the consumer basket”. By monitoring the changes in price of the consumer basket, economists are able to predict the interest trends. This is largely due to the fact that central bank will more often than not act to tame inflation by raising interest rates and vice versa. The adjustments of interest rates to keep consumer basket within the majorities reach will affect the underlying currency either strengthening or weakening it.

 

Retail Sales

Retails sales are good pointers of the state of the economy. When the economy is strong and growing, retails sales escalate and consumer are more willing to spend money on luxury goods. Conversely, a shrinking economy is characterized by a reduction in retail sales and cautious spending by consumers.

 

Trade Balance

This is simply the difference between total exports and total exports between two or more trading nations. Multinational trade involves the export and import of goods and services between nations. When one country exports more than it imports the net effect is a trade surplus. The reverse of this is known as trade deficit. Great emphasis is placed on Trade Balance Report as it shows the movement of goods and services between nations. Countries with trade surplus usually have stronger economies as there have more money in than what there are spending.

 

Gross Domestic Product – GDP

GDP is derived at by measuring the consumers’ ability to consume / afford goods and services produced within their economy. A strong GDP is a sign of a robust economy which should be checked for inflation - rising interest rates - while a weak GDP could be interpreted to indicate a recession meaning interest rates are likely to head south.

 

ISM Manufacturing Survey

This survey gauges the mood and sentiments of companies’ top brass, decision and policy makers towards inflation. The centerpiece of this survey is their take on business outlook - new business, production capacities, backlogs, inventory levels and manpower issues. A 50 points scale is used to interpret the findings with value 50 indicating expansion, while values below 50 are a sign of recession

Daily FX Profit Signal March 22nd, 2010

A big move towards the end of last week is now signaling a reversal in the EUR/USD pair and a drop below 1.3500 will open another test of 1.3430. If that level is broken we will look forward to a continued move to 1.30 and then 1.25 over the next few months. Unfortunately, we expected the retracement to move much higher than the 1.3800 level, but at this point, we have to keep our eyes on the move lower. We are looking for consolidation on Monday and Tuesday before another big break lower occurs. There is quite a bit of news spread out throughout the week so we’ll be looking for a trigger for the next move in favor of the dollar.
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Free Daily Forex Video March 22, 2010

 

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Daily FX Profit Signal March 17th, 2010

Another interesting day as the market continues to offer uncertainty. There isn’t much correlation between some of the majors and this is keeping us cautious. We’re seeing the commodity currencies continue to rally along with the sterling, but the USD/CHF and EUR/USD are lagging behind. We must be vigilant as any news can quickly spark the market to go in a different direction. The EUR/USD is on a very clear path to further uncertainty and volatility as the EU continues to go back and forth with the future of Greece’s bailout as well as future plans on how to handle those types of situations. As of now, the outlook for the EU continues to cloud any
direction for the EUR/USD. 
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Free Daily Forex Video March 18, 2010

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