Daily FX Profit Signal March 17th, 2010

Hi Everyone,

Once again, our expectations haven’t been on point, rather we keep getting surprised by the market shifting price action against the dollar. A break of 1.3800 may lead the market higher to 1.4000 over the next few days, so pay close attention to that level. Don’t be surprised that we continue to see such heavy moves. Technically, we’ve been on point so far, but news out of EU regarding Greece, interest rate announcements, and other surprises have been throwing us off the last couple of days. We need to establish a certain direction with limited reversals so we can make a few longer term trades. We continue to look for dollar losses for a few hundred pips before we see  another longer term reversal and further dollar strength.
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Daily FX Profit Signal March 16th, 2010

Tough day as far as our expectations. We wanted to see a continuation in the EUR/USD pair. So far, the market has retraced 61.8% from the recent leg up that started last week at 1.3535 to Friday’s highs of 1.3795. Trading at 1.3673 now, we want the market to stay above 1.3640; however, if broken, we may see a reversal in favor of the dollar strengthen and lead lower to the 1.35 area, testing 1.3430. Worse than expected economic data out of the US may help the dollar rather than hurt it as it will be a reason for traders to play the “safe haven” excuse on fears global economic recovery is fading. We’re keen on the Asian and European session for further price action.

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Daily FX Profit Signal March 15th, 2010

As expected, the euro finally broke above its recent range and began a rally that stalled at 1.3800 as of this past Friday. With not much news over the weekend, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.3760 and we expect further dollar losses against most of the majors for another week or two before the market turns around and find reason to support the longer term dollar appreciation.
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Daily FX Profit Signal March 11th, 2010

Happy Friday Traders,

A very quiet market over the last 24 hours. With the release of today’s Retail Sales and UofM Sentiment during the NY session, we won’t have to wait long before we see some volatility. In fact, the price should now begin to stage a breakout over the next 2 days. Either we’ll see a big move today or early next week.
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Daily FX Profit Signal March 11th, 2010

A very difficult market to read. The current price action that’s selling the dollar vs. most of the majors may not be a true reversal. We think this is only a retracement that’s long been overdue. The markets have been very volatile and we expect uncertainty in the global recovery to help the dollar in the next few months. Also, uncertainty about Iran’s nuclear program and agreements may help the dollar as new information continues to be front page news. Until we have a better understanding, we’ll leave it at that.
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Daily FX Profit Signal March 10th, 2010

Market continues to see volatility but consolidates towards the end of the day. We’re paying close attention to several pairs, which I’ll cover in detail in the video.  Bulls and bears seem to be split on further direction, but we do expect dollar bears to win this one, at least in the short term. More importantly, we have to look at what the other majors are doing, and with the equity markets heading up, investors are opening up to more risk, hence the rally in AUD and NZD pairs. The USD/CHF has held above 1.07 fairly well and the EUR and GBP are consolidating. We think the price action over the next few days will be very important, especially if we anticipate a further retracement in the buck.

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Daily FX Profit Signal March 5th, 2010

We’re going to have a VERY interesting trading session later today, during the release of the very important Non-Farm Payrolls. The market is very volatile and can go either way at this point. The move on the EUR/USD overnight, falling below the previous day’s lows is bearish, but we have mixed views on this as a rejection of the move under 1.3440 was very important, followed by a 61.8% retracement to March 3rd highs. I’ll cover that in the video in a bit. Be careful trading and don’t forget to use stops.

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Daily FX Profit Signal March 4th, 2010

Daily FX Profit Signal March 4th, 2010

 

The euro continued to strengthen to 1.3700 as Greece announced further budget cuts and tax increases. The concern for the trader is now the volatility that will come out from unexpected news in the coming months as many questions remain unanswered. We expect the euro to retrace further, as high as 1.4500, but it will most likely have difficulty surpassing the 1.4200 level. Before this euro bullish outlook continues, we expect a retracement to 1.3650/1.3600. A break below 1.3580 will be bearish for the euro and we’ll look for further USD strength.

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Daily FX Profit Signal March 3rd, 2010

Market uncertainty is the main theme here today. After seeing the euro break below recent lows of 1.3435 vs. the USD, it immediately reversed higher to trade at 1.3600 a few hours later. A very uncommon market led to very common trading as dollar buyers didn’t show up today. This is possibly setting up for a reversal as we’ve been calling it since last week. Now that the test of 1.3450 is over, we expect the market to either consolidate a bit further before a further retracement to 1.3800/1.4000 level. With that being said, if the market breaks through 1.3430 once more, we then expect a full revival of dollar strength and the move to continue to the lower 1.30s. With the very important NFP release this Friday, traders will be tasked with figuring out the direction of the market. Not a lot of correlation in the market so tread carefully.
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Daily FX Profit Signal March 2nd, 2010

A very fierce trading session yesterday. Initially, the market did just as expected, the euro started gaining ground before and during the first several hours of the London session but things crashed soon after more news came out in regards to Greece and the EZ’s bailout. Several factors played a role:

1.       Germany announced they had not budgeted the bailout into their 2010 budget

2.       The bailout would only be granted if Greece achieves its 2010 deficit target.

3.       EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner said that Greece must deepen measures to reduce its budget deficit after meeting with Greek FM.

The pound dropped to test 1.48 after polls showed that Gordon Brown’s party trailed the minority party, leading traders to believe that the UK will face problems cutting the nation’s record deficit.  A very tough market to say the least as any bit of news will add much volatility.
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